Oil heads into the weekend with two fresh catalysts that are not reflected in Friday’s closes. OPEC+ meets tomorrow, 4 October, with the group expected to leave November production targets unchanged. At the same time, Middle East supply risk has come back into focus. While I was writing this inaugural edition of OilSight on Saturday, another crude tanker was reportedly struck by an unidentified projectile east of Oman, while fire and smoke were also seen near the Aramco refinery south of Riyadh. The cause of the Riyadh incident had not been confirmed at the time of writing. Both developments came after Friday’s close, meaning the latest escalation is not reflected in the benchmark prices below.
Benchmark snapshot
Brent: $102.25/bbl (+0.1% WoW)
WTI: $91.11/bbl (−1.6% WoW)
Dubai: $108.50/bbl (−5.1% WoW)
Oman: $108.52/bbl (−2.7% WoW)
Brent finished the week almost unchanged while WTI fell 1.6%, but the path between those closes was far more volatile.
The week began with prices supported by the wider Iran conflict and uncertainty around Hormuz, before improving physical supply started overriding the geopolitical premium. Middle Eastern crude exports reached around 16.3 million barrels per day in September, their highest level since the war began, while Saudi Arabia restarted crude loadings through Yanbu after restoring its East-West Pipeline.
That helped push crude lower early in the week even as tankers continued to come under attack. At least seven vessels were reported struck or targeted around Hormuz over the period, showing that physical supply could improve even while security conditions worsened.
The pressure then shifted further down the barrel. China suspended most October fuel exports, while Russian refinery disruption and export restrictions continued to tighten diesel supply. That helped drive Thursday’s sharp rally, alongside reports of a larger US military presence in the region.
Friday brought the counterweight. European governments and other IEA members moved towards releasing around 50 million barrels of diesel and another 50 million barrels of crude, taking some pressure back out of prices.
What matters next
Hormuz shipping - More attacks become genuinely bullish if they begin reducing actual tanker movements or sharply raising already high freight and insurance costs.
Bab el-Mandeb - Further Houthi advances or Saudi military action would raise risk around the Red Sea route that is helping bypass Hormuz.
OPEC - An unchanged decision is expected. A surprise increase in production would be bearish, while tighter supply guidance would add support.
Chinese and Russian fuel supply - Continued restrictions would keep diesel and refining margins firm even if crude itself softens.
War risk alone is not enough to keep crude moving higher if physical barrels continue reaching the market. The bigger question is whether resilience will hold as pressure builds around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. The conflict has been awfully cyclical: when attacks disrupted one route, producers shifted flows elsewhere, and those alternative routes have now become more strategically important and exposed themselves.
For now, improving crude availability keeps the downside case alive but each new attack raises the risk that the next disruption affects actual flows rather than just sentiment.